Decision-support tool · Trade-off
Beta
Quebec Energy Simulator (2025-2050)
Current scenario:
Scenario result
First capacity shortfall
Energy balance in 2035
Rise in average cost by 2035
GHGs avoided in 2035
GHGs avoided outside Quebec in 2035
Neighboring grids
Average carbon intensity of the electricity consumed, in grams of CO₂ equivalent per kWh, including the life cycle of power plants and imports.
In Quebec, day by day
Energy balance
Reading this chart: colors, hatching, axis
- Needs: needs without savings, Quebec plus exports. Everything in color must reach this line.
- Energy savings, the “virtual power plant”: each TWh saved is a TWh that does not have to be generated. They stack on top of generation.
- In gray, existing supply: hydro, existing wind, Labrador (1969 contract). In color, what is added.
- Hatched blue: depends on the option chosen for Churchill Falls.
- Hatched red: remaining needs to be met, through temporary imports or other solutions, as in Hydro-Québec’s supply balances.
- Band under the years: gap between supply and needs, green for a surplus, rust for a shortfall.
- Axis: TWh per year, one step per year. It starts at 100 TWh.
Winter peak, on a very cold morning
Reading this chart: colors, hatching, axis
- Needs: peak needs without savings, reserve included. Everything in color must reach this line.
- Energy savings, the “virtual power plant”: each GW saved at the peak is a GW that does not have to be supplied. They stack on top of generation.
- In gray, existing supply, counted by its contribution to the peak. In color, what is added.
- Hatched blue: depends on the option chosen for Churchill Falls.
- Dotted gray: short-term purchases from neighboring markets.
- Purples: batteries, peaking thermal generation and demand management.
- Hatched red: remaining needs to be met, through temporary imports or other solutions, as in Hydro-Québec’s supply balances.
- Band under the years: gap between supply and needs, green for a surplus, rust for a shortfall.
- Axis: GW available on a very cold morning, one step per winter. It starts at 30 GW.
Average cost and price paid
Reading this chart: the red area
¢/kWh in 2025 dollars. The red area, where the cost exceeds the cap, is the gap that must be financed some other way: the government, debt or other customers.
Bills of typical households in 2035
2025 dollars, before taxes: at 2025 rates, in 2035.
Your decisions
Start from a scenario
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Construction rates start after a commissioning delay. A decision taken today often takes effect 5 to 10 years later.
Conditions2 settingsThese are not decisions: water inflows and duration, to test weather and climate
Benchmarks and sources
Benchmarks: −42 TWh in 2023, −35 in 2024 and −33 in 2025 compared with normal (Hydro-Québec, 2025 financial results, in French). The annual model does not represent multi-year reservoirs, which absorb part of a dry spell: the effect of a short episode is probably overstated here. Since 1943, the reservoirs have received on average enough water to generate 222.4 TWh a year, and three years this low in a row had not been seen since 1961-1963 (État de l’énergie au Québec 2026, chart 13, p. 19, in French).
Assumptions and sources
Limitations of this version
- Annual model: it represents neither hours, nor reservoirs, nor regions. An annual balance can hide real strains.
- The average cost does not distinguish between customer classes. The cap applies here to all rates.
- The third tier and the first per-person tier change bills without rebalancing Hydro-Québec’s revenues.
- The cost of household equipment (heat pumps, vehicles) is not counted.
- GHGs avoided outside Quebec are counted separately, never added to Quebec’s: exports minus purchases in a shortfall year, at the neighbors’ average intensity (Electricity Maps, 2025), assumed to decline through 2050. In practice, an export displaces backup generation, from gas, which emits more than the average.
- Bioenergy, renewable natural gas and imported hydrogen are not modeled.
- Green hydrogen is counted conservatively: a 51% efficiency measured in Quebec, compression and fueling station included (Quebec Ministère des Transports, 2024), replacing natural gas, the lowest-emitting fuel. Conversion into synthetic fuels is not counted: with it, hydrogen would avoid even fewer GHGs.
Scenario data (CSV)
Annual series of the scenario shown, separated by semicolons, for expert review.
Generating facilities
Hydro-Québec’s hydroelectric generating stations, each circle scaled to its capacity, with Churchill Falls in Labrador, thermal plants, wind farms, the main transmission lines and the interconnections with neighboring provinces and states. Tap a symbol to see its card; the boxes at the top right show or hide a layer, with the lines and interconnections hidden at first.
Reservoir generating stationRun-of-river generating stationWind farmChurchill Falls (Labrador)Thermal plantDiesel plant (off-grid system)Transmission line, 735 or 765 kV (dashed: direct current)Interconnection to the United StatesInterconnection to a province
Generating stations as a table
Off-grid generating stations as a table
Interconnections as a table
Sources and limitations
What stakeholders say - The Vision énergie tour consultationThe tour’s workshops, held in 2025, were meant to give the Ministère de l’Économie, de l’Innovation et de l’Énergie a better understanding of the visions of various stakeholders in Quebec’s energy planning, particularly regarding objectives, future choices and energy priorities, as well as expectations for the integrated energy resource management plan (PGIRE).
Swipe the table sideways to see all eleven energy options.
Tap or hover over a cell to read the idea and its page.
To developWith reservations or mixed viewsTo avoidNo view recorded
Coded by Pareto from the ideas the report records group by group (tables 1, 2, 2.1 and 2.3): a symbol sums up a group’s ideas. Participants were invited by the ministry and do not represent the population, and not every group attended every stop. Column headings that match a slider lead to it. Source: Tournée Vision énergie, rapport des ateliers (in French) (MEIE, 2025).
Every idea recorded, question by question (tables 1 to 2.3 of the report)
Open this section to load the tables.
Inspired by the En-ROADS simulator from Climate Interactive.
To understand how Hydro-Québec forecasts demand and plans its supply and its grid: Planning tomorrow’s energy.